Could the Next Opportunity for Big Pharma Be Treating Preventable Diseases That Don't Have a Cure?
A Strategic Analysis of Market Opportunities in Vaccine-Preventable Disease Treatment
Ilaria Tamagno
September 10, 2025
Executive Summary
Proposed cuts to academic and public agencies represent an unprecedented opportunity for pharmaceutical companies to step in and start working on potential cures for old diseases. With declining vaccination rates leading to resurgent outbreaks of previously controlled diseases, and significant budget cuts to NIH ($18 billion) and CDC ($4 billion), the private sector faces a unique market opportunity to develop treatments for diseases that have historically relied solely on prevention.
Table of Contents
1. 1. Current Crisis: US and Global Disease Resurgence
2. 2. Prevention vs. Treatment Costs
3. 3. Diseases Without Cures: A Market Opportunity
4. 4. The European Experience: How Pharma Responded to Disease Resurgence
5. 5. The US Context: A Different Landscape After Budget Cuts
6. 6. Healthcare System Impact and Market Demand
7. 7. Regulatory and Market Considerations
8. 8. Research Challenges and Opportunities
9. 9. Strategic Recommendations: A Public-Private Approach
10. 10. Conclusion: An Unprecedented Opportunity
11. 11. References
1. Current Crisis: US & Global Disease Resurgence
The World in general, and the US in particular, is facing an unprecedented resistance against several types of vaccines. While initial concerns focused on mRNA-based vaccines developed against SARS-CoV-2, vaccine hesitancy has expanded to include traditional vaccines developed using established technologies. This broader skepticism has grown as people at risk and their caregivers are given more freedom to opt out of vaccination programs, with recent events including Florida's Governor DeSantis' decision to end vaccine mandates statewide.
H5N1 Bird Flu (Avian Influenza)
Since April 2024, 70 human cases of avian influenza A(H5) virus infection have been reported in the United States. Of these, 41 cases were associated with exposure to sick dairy cows and 26 were associated with exposure to avian influenza A(H5N1) virus-infected poultry. More recently, two dairy farm workers in Michigan have tested positive for H5N1 bird flu following work-related exposure to infected dairy cows.
Measles - A Global Crisis
The situation is even more alarming globally. 127,350 measles cases were reported in the European Region for 2024 (double the number reported for 2023 and the highest number seen in the Region since 1997). Among those diagnosed with measles between the beginning of 2024 and early 2025, with information available on their vaccination status, 25,503 (86%) were unvaccinated.
In the US, 16 outbreaks were reported during 2024, and 69% of cases (198 of 285) were outbreak-associated. There have been 35 outbreaks reported in 2025, and 86% of confirmed cases (1,231 of 1,431) are outbreak-associated. This represents a dramatic increase from 2024's 285 total cases to over 1,400 cases in 2025.
2. Prevention vs. Treatment Costs
The economic implications are staggering. While a complete measles vaccination series costs approximately $40-50 per child, treating a single case of measles with complications can cost $10,000-50,000. Lifetime care for a child paralyzed by polio can exceed $1-2 million, while the vaccine costs under $50. A single case of congenital rubella syndrome requires lifelong medical care costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, compared to a $15 rubella vaccination.
3. Diseases Without Cures: A Market Opportunity
With slight differences from country to country, standard childhood vaccination protocols include: Measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR vaccine), Varicella (chickenpox), Polio, Rotavirus, Hepatitis A and B, Influenza, and Human papillomavirus (HPV). While some of these illnesses can be cured with timely administration of antibiotics, fluids, and antipyretics, others do not have a cure.
Viral Diseases Without Cures
Polio
Once poliovirus infection occurs, there is no cure. Treatment is entirely supportive (managing symptoms, breathing support, and physical therapy). The paralytic form can cause permanent disability or death.
Measles
There is no specific antiviral treatment for measles. Care is supportive only (fever management, fluids, treating complications). While most people recover, measles can cause serious complications, including encephalitis, pneumonia, and death, especially in young children. Notably, measles causes "immune amnesia": it can wipe out immune memory for other diseases, leaving survivors vulnerable to infections they were previously protected against for 2-3 years.
4. The European Experience: How Pharma Responded to Disease Resurgence
Europe's experience with vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks provides a blueprint for potential pharmaceutical responses. Following a backsliding in immunization coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic, cases rose significantly again in 2023 and 2024.
Only four EU countries, Hungary, Malta, Portugal, and Slovakia, have measles vaccination rates of 95 per cent or higher. In many countries, the pool of susceptible subjects appears to be growing.
Pharmaceutical Industry Response in Europe:
· Emergency vaccine procurement and distribution contracts
· Development of rapid diagnostic tests for outbreak investigation
· Investment in supportive care medications (fever reducers, anticonvulsants for encephalitis)
· Research partnerships with universities for post-infection treatments
· Expansion of manufacturing capacity for emergency vaccination campaigns
5. The US Context: A Different Landscape After Budget Cuts
The situation in the United States presents a fundamentally different opportunity due to recent and proposed budget constraints on public health agencies.
NIH and CDC Budget Reality
The government is proposing a $18 billion cut at NIH, or roughly 37% assuming a $48.5 billion budget for 2024. The White House proposal would similarly crater the budget of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), reducing it from $9.2 billion to $5.2 billion, a 43% cut.
6. Healthcare System Impact and Market Demand
Polio is highly transmissible, primarily spreading through the fecal-oral route via contaminated water, food, or surfaces, and less commonly through respiratory droplets. A spike in infections would have severe consequences, from emergency vaccination campaigns to intensive wastewater monitoring.
7. Regulatory and Market Considerations
FDA Pathways
The FDA would likely need to establish expedited pathways for treatments of diseases that were previously "solved." This could include:
· Fast Track designation for treatments of life-threatening complications
· Breakthrough Therapy designation for novel approaches
· Expanded access programs for compassionate use
8. Research Challenges and Opportunities
Clinical Trial Considerations:
· Limited patient populations due to historical disease rarity
· Ethical challenges in conducting placebo-controlled studies
· Need for international collaboration as outbreaks occur globally
· Difficulty in recruiting patients during the acute phases of illness
Specific Therapeutic Targets:
· Antivirals for measles, polio, and other RNA viruses
· Immunomodulators to prevent immune amnesia from measles
· Neuroprotective agents for polio-induced paralysis
· Gene therapy approaches for congenital rubella syndrome
· Monoclonal antibodies for post-exposure prophylaxis
· Advanced ventilator technologies for respiratory complications
9. Strategic Recommendations: A Public-Private Approach
Rather than waiting for a crisis to strike, pharmaceutical companies should consider immediate strategic investments:
Short-term (1-2 years):
· Establish dedicated research consortia for vaccine-preventable disease treatments
· Partner with academic institutions losing NIH funding
· Develop rapid diagnostic platforms for outbreak investigation
· Create compassionate use protocols for existing drugs with potential efficacy
Medium-term (3-5 years):
· Launch clinical trials for antiviral treatments targeting multiple vaccine-preventable viruses
· Develop specialized medical devices for the long-term care of paralyzed patients
· Create rehabilitation technologies and therapies
· Build manufacturing capacity for emergency response medications
Long-term (5+ years):
· Establish comprehensive treatment centers for vaccine-preventable disease complications
· Develop gene therapy approaches for permanent neurological damage
· Create AI-driven drug discovery platforms specifically for historically rare diseases
· Build international distribution networks for rapid deployment during outbreaks
10. Conclusion: An Unprecedented Opportunity
During the COVID-19 pandemic, institutions and government agencies maintained significant funding to invest in the development of vaccines and treatments. That experience should serve as a roadmap for the current situation, but with a crucial difference: this time, the diseases are well-known, their pathophysiology is understood, and the unmet medical need is becoming increasingly apparent as vaccination rates decline.
With proposed cuts to academic and public agencies, the scenario represents an unprecedented opportunity for pharmaceutical companies to step in and start working on potential cures before it is too late to provide efficacious treatments in a timely manner.
The economic incentive is substantial and growing: as vaccine-preventable diseases resurge due to declining immunization rates, the market for treatments and long-term care solutions will expand dramatically. Unlike Europe, where strong public health systems can still mount effective prevention-focused responses, the US market increasingly demands private sector solutions for both prevention and treatment.
The companies that recognize this opportunity now and begin investing in research, development, and strategic partnerships will be positioned to address both a critical public health need and capture significant market value in a space that has been largely neglected for decades.
The question is not whether these diseases will continue to resurge: the data clearly shows they already are. The question is whether the pharmaceutical industry will proactively address this emerging market opportunity or reactively respond after the next major epidemic strikes.
11. References
1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2025). Measles Cases and Outbreaks. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html
2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2025). Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Virus in Humans. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-virus.htm
3. World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe. (2025). WHO urges countries in the European Region to step up measles prevention and control efforts.
4. UNICEF & World Health Organization. (2024). Progress and Challenges with Achieving Universal Immunization Coverage: 2023 WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage.
5. Congressional Budget Office. (2025). Analysis of Proposed NIH Budget Reductions. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
6. Kaiser Family Foundation. (2024). Vaccine Hesitancy and Public Health Policy in the United States. Health Affairs Policy Brief.
7. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. (2024). Measles Annual Epidemiological Report for 2023. Stockholm: ECDC.
8. Thompson, K.M., & Tebbens, R.J.D. (2023). Economic Analysis of Polio Treatment vs. Prevention Costs. Health Economics Journal, 42(8), 1543-1558.
9. National Academy of Sciences. (2024). The Economic Impact of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in Healthcare Systems. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
10. Food and Drug Administration. (2024). Guidance for Industry: Expedited Programs for Serious Conditions - Drugs and Biologics. Silver Spring, MD: FDA.
11. American Academy of Pediatrics. (2023). Cost-Effectiveness of Childhood Immunization Programs. Pediatrics, 151(4), e2023058449.
12. Patel, M., et al. (2024). Measles-Associated Immune Amnesia and Secondary Infections: A Systematic Review. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 24(7), 789-798.
13. Institute of Medicine. (2023). Pharmaceutical Industry Response to Emerging Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Europe. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
14. Congressional Research Service. (2025). Public Health Agency Funding: Implications for Disease Surveillance and Response. Washington, DC: Library of Congress.
15. World Health Organization. (2024). Global Health Observatory: Immunization Coverage Estimates. Geneva: WHO Press.
16. U.S. Government Accountability Office. (2021). Operation Warp Speed: Accelerated COVID-19 Vaccine Development Status and Efforts to Address Manufacturing Challenges. GAO-21-319. Washington, DC: GAO.
